The Smoking Carbon Gun : Warming Unmasked

Will 2015 be the year that the human species acknowledges its way of civilization is collapsing life all around it?

Meanwhile 2014 vies for for hottest year on instrumental record.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hottest-year-ever-5-places-where-2014-temps-really-cooked/

International negotiations on doing meaningful for global warming continued to be a failure. National leaders and political parties in government are in denial in Australia. The IPCC  detail reports are full of overwhelming evidence of human contribution to global warming.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Global economies have continued to collapse because of lack of cheap oil supply, and now they can no longer afford as much oil, there is a temporary glut.  Prices are still neither low enough nor will stay down for long enough to achieve global economic growth resuscitation, but they are still low enough to turn off some expensive oil production. When the glut ends, as it it must, there will be another round of economic collapse.

In the meantime, education, health and welfare spending is to be sacrificed in Australia. This is a predictable consequence of global economic collapse, but unfortunately the policies chose that the poor are sacrificed first. Services and goods become more expensive, so that only private wealthy access is maintained.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/12/29/how-increased-inefficiency-explains-falling-oil-prices/

Global warming continues to accelarate. Atmosphere carbon dioxide continues to rise, increasing radiative forcing by nearly 10% since 2005. Estimates of overall balance of effective radiative forcing are that it is now 43% higher than 2005! That is really bad, as near term global warming is likely to accelarate.

Juicey Paragraphs from AR5 - (WG1 Chapter 8)

The total anthropogenic ERF [effective radiative forcing] over the Industrial Era is 2.3 (1.1 to 3.3) Wm-2.  It is certain that the total anthropogenic ERF is positive. Total anthropogenic ERF has increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades. The total anthropogenic ERF estimate for 2011 is 43% higher compared to the AR4 RF estimate for the year 2005 owing to reductions in estimated forcing due to aerosols but also to continued growth in greenhouse gas RF.

The majority of this change since AR4 is due to increases in the carbon dioxide (CO2) RF of nearly 10%.

Since 2005 it appears we may have cleaned up some dirty coal sulphate pollution, but failed to curb economic growth and associated growth in carbon emissions. Recent economic collapse is yet to show up in a reduction of global carbon emissions. To stay under a notional 2º C of warming, a 10% reduction in coal burning every year will be required, if we leave reductions till 2020. It looks like that no nation will volunteer for this.

Atmosphere Methane continues its role, maintaining an extra 0.5 Wm-2 since pre-industrial times. Methane in the atmosphere is creeping up slowly, indicating that global production just exceeds the rate atmosphere conversion to CO2.  Our push for more fracking is not helping bring it back down. A large methane cloud exists over the USA, attributed to increased leakages from gas drillings.  Arctic sub sea and tundra methane eruptions continue from stored deposits, and regional increase in methane helps to add to the maximal warming in polar regions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/delaware-sized-gas-plume-over-west-illustrates-the-cost-of-leaking-methane/2014/12/29/d34c3e6e-8d1f-11e4-a085-34e9b9f09a58_story.html

China continues to have plenty of sulphate pollution, which at times wafts over the USA. As the article referenced below put it, the pollution over the USA includes emissions that the USA exported to China, to produce consumer goods for the USA.

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/01/21/chinese-air-pollution-blankets-us-west-coast/

No one should worry too much about this, as civilizations have collapsed in many places, many times before. The unsustainable big density of people always vanishes away.

The Cassandra Legacy ( Resource Crisis ) blog site takes note of our march to the cliff top, in seven shocking events of 2014. In particular Ugo Bardi noted:-

The loss of hope of stopping climate change. 2014 was the year in which the publication of the IPCC 5th assessment report was completed. It left absolutely no ripple in the debate. People seem to think that the best weapon we have against climate change is to declare that it doesn't exist. They repeat over and over the comforting mantra that "temperatures have not increased during the past 15 years", and that despite 2014 turning out to be the hottest year on record.

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/seven-shocking-events-of-2014.html

One of the effects of Climate Change will likely be greater soil erosion, due to increased weather extremes.  To help a cheery start to 2015, I am reading a book called "Dirt : The erosion of Civlizations - by David Montgomery". 

 

 

author:
Michael Rynn
description:
Climate change denial continues its march to the edge of the cliff while global warming accelarates
keywords:
Global Warming Accelarates
og:title:
The Smoking Carbon Gun : Global warming ecosuicide in Australia in 2014

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