Now calibrated with current datasets, an updated Limits to Growth model shows collapse in global industrial output is already happening just about now. Collapse is from resources depletion, particularly oil. Human population reduction will follow later. Persistent pollution is indexed to accumulated industrial CO2 emissions, which will continue grow to badly plague us later.
Global climate models have been underestimating the rates of polar warming. What is missing? This paper says that thin, high polar clouds may be responsible. They form in the stratosphere, with water vapor created from methane breakdown. This amplifies the greenhouse effect of the methane itself.
This nicely authored and credentialed report is the equivalent of firing at point blank range the delusions and ideas that techno-industrial civilization will still be able to "techno-progress" its way out of its multiple self-created predicaments. These predicaments are sometimes called poly-crisis, our ecological overshoot, or in philosophy termed hyperobjects whose multidimensional, time ramifications and detailed interconnections escape the most common and simple political slogans and even "green" favoritism expressed today, which are tightly restricted by politically-correct media control.
For instance this Pallas Ceres report states clearly that a real green new deal is not a renewable energy powered future. The PC report seems to require "healed-minds" concept of changing the current path of our species. This report also seems to imply that without healed minds enabled to give full guidance, our species pathologies will continue their path towards self-destruction, and future survival may just be of the few or (un)lucky.
Techo-Industrial civilization - TIC - has made its temporary escape growth from our biosphere systems ecological constraints, and the only way back to mitigate ongoing mass extinctions, requires TIC degrowth in order to return all life towards its evolutionary dynamics of balance, to allow all life to continue inside systems constraints of our biosphere life support systems.
Also in this PC report, are hopes for spiritual and metaphysical growth of human beings. This seems to be a requirement in order for governments to cooperate in having rational plans for disarming and making safe our TIC systems. According to students of history, cycles of conflicts between elites tend to bring about our own destruction. None of the PC sensible suggestions seem to be on any nations current political agenda.
The report has quite a backing list of referral materials, books and videos, on important anchoring topics, quite a few of which I have encountered previously and can also recommend. I also credit Eric Lee on medium.com for referring this report, and writing an article summary.
ParraCAN just signed up for -- "Coalition for Climate Ambition" - initiative by The Australia Institute.
- Ban all new fossil fuel development in Australia
- Cease all fossil fuel subsidies
- Preserve and restore Australia’s ecosystems and stop all native forest logging
- Reject the idea that carbon credits can offset fossil fuel emissions
A little bit of climate honesty could go a long way.
Can Juice media give a gut blow to our fossil fuels bound Australian Government? Our "climate leader" politicians are an unbelievable easy target.
"Have we finally broken our favorite planet?"
Global environment appearances can be deceptive, and Australian politicians appear to have collectively sworn not to be deceived by them. Judging by results, COP for climate action are nothing more than yearly fossil fuel corporate trade shows, designed to produce agreements to burn more of their products every year.
Yet another federal government budget floods media attention in Australia. Discussions in the media tend to be about small matters of Surplus or Deficit, Taxes and Welfare. Meanwhile our petty domestic politics are overshadowed by a global polycrisis of risks, which keep looming ever larger and nearer, as listed in this World Economic Forum report.
A standard political response to preparing any of these, is the equivalent of filling a bucket with sand, and sticking one's head it. Or to start talking about incremental policy changes, or smearing the opposition party. All elements of this polycrisis are made worse by pushing for continued growth, in population, wealth and consumption. In facing these risks, Australia plans to give up nothing. This is loss aversion and fear of economic collapse. We cannot keep it all.
Notice how "Geoeconomic confrontation" risk drops from near the top, to near the bottom, over the ten years. Keep this in mind when considering that Australia's most expensive future spending plans over the next decades, are for investments in high tech weapons in support of the military industrial complex of the USA, which is rapid social and economic decline.
Notice that "rapid collapse of the USA global military empire" is not included in the risks list. This is because western media deny its existence while at the same time drumming hysterical support for its latest war and weapons business venture.
Alan Urban's "collapsesurvivalsite.com" is made of reinforced conviction. You should best believe its real.
A play list of well conceived presentations by Sid Smith, which places our present predicaments in the context of the many cycles of life.
Infographics about our systems Hyperthreat of climate as a HyperObject. Something beyond our mental, social and political comprehension. Something implied by the term #ClimateBomb
... the hyperthreat of climate change has warlike destructive capabilities that are so diffuse that it is hard to comprehend the enormity of the destruction, nor those responsible for these hostile actions. - Climate Change as a Hyperthreat - Elizabeth G. Boulton
Alan Urban's article linked here, contributes a clear summary of the dire overshoot predicament we are in. Global carrying capacity for our impacts of population multiplied by our consumption wants has been degrading our biosphere for a century, given an approximate upper limits of 0.25 to 2.5 billion people. The lower value of 250 million, is for everyone living closer to the extremes of consumption that developed nations enjoy today. The very important point is that even apparent sustainable population size, can continue to use up its reserves of stocks and sinks of biosphere systems resources that take very long time scales to renew or reach equilibrium. Important examples are soils, forests, aquifers, and chemical buffer capacity of oceans and atmosphere.
Biological carrying capacity starts to degrade long before total reserves are used up and population starvation happens only when resource flows have dropped. Sinks capacity usage is even more insidious, in cases of slow buildup of globalized long-lived pollution. Human civilization has used up the total reserves and is currently experiencing decline in resource flows, and many locally toxic back-flows of the concentrated wastes sunk into our biosphere. We may give it terms like "economic depression" , "inflation", "illegal war" , "inequality", or "pollution spill", but these are political and corporation cover-up terms, to water down our general systems understanding and guilt of our causation and factual agency. Nationalist and corporate propaganda works extremely hard to ignore the true ecological costs of overshoot prior to population collapse and crash. Rulers and rich alike can ignore it all as a reward for getting more than a fair share, as our egoistic brains are designed to optimize our relative personal survival. Only the growing numbers of poor, starving, desperate and ignored human beings can say what is really happening.